European Wheat Production Expected to Hit 10-Year Low This Year

GrainScanner
19 Jul 2024


Graphs of falling production and rising grain prices

Graphs of falling production and rising grain pricesใ…ฃ Photo: gettyimagesbank


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European Wheat Production Expected to Hit 10-Year Low This Year

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This year, European wheat production is anticipated to hit its lowest level in the past decade. This decline is primarily due to poor harvests in major wheat-producing countries such as France and Germany, coupled with abnormal weather conditions resulting from climate change. The projected decrease in wheat yield is expected to significantly impact the European wheat market, with far-reaching consequences for the global wheat market as well. Let's explore the expected wheat harvest volumes, causes, and forecasts for key countries with GrainScanner.


Agricultural machines harvest wheat in the field

ใ…ฃ Photo: gettyimagesbank

#Decline in French Wheat Production

France, one of Europe’s largest wheat producers, is expected to see its wheat yield hit a 10-year low this year. As of July 1, only 1% of the total area had been harvested, with production anticipated to be 11% below the 10-year average, reaching its lowest level since 2016. The expected production volume is between 29 to 30 million tons, with a noticeable decline in quality as well. 


Climate change with flood and drought

ใ…ฃ Photo: gettyimagesbank

#What about Wheat Production in Germany?

Germany is also expected to see a decline in wheat production this year. The German Agricultural Association predicts that Germany's wheat yield will decrease by 6.2% in 2024, reaching 20.2 million tons. This is a 10% decrease compared to last summer's production. The primary reasons for this decline include reduced cultivation areas and poor harvests caused by repeated rainfall.


grain shortage with global climateใ…ฃ Photo: gettyimagesbank

#Climate Change and Abnormal Weather Conditions

One of the main factors contributing to the decline in European wheat production is the abnormal weather conditions resulting from climate change. Droughts, heavy rains, and extreme temperature fluctuations have significantly impacted wheat crops, reducing yields. This year, spring droughts followed by summer heatwaves have severely affected wheat harvests.

Climate inflation is not just a simple price increase but a precursor to a potential food crisis. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the risk of simultaneous crop failures in major maize-growing regions has been around 6% per year in recent decades. However, if the global average temperature rise exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, this risk is expected to surge to 40% annually. A NASA research team published in the journal Nature Food in 2021 stated, "If greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere remain high, wheat production could decrease by 24% within a decade."

Given the anticipated decline in European wheat production, the global wheat market is expected to experience significant disruptions. Buyers and packers looking to secure stable wheat supplies can rely on GrainScanner for trusted partnerships. We offer a wide range of grains, competitive prices, and fast delivery services. Explore new business opportunities with GrainScanner today.


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๐Ÿ”References

1. "Climbing Food Prices Due to Climate Inflation: Fear of Global Food Crisis [The World Now]"<Segye Ilbo>, July 13, 2024

2. "The Earth's Heatwave Impacting Wheat and Corn Harvests, Oil Prices Rising Daily", <Hankyung>, June 14, 2024

3. "German wheat, rapeseed crop forecasts for 2024 cut grain", <Hellenic Shipping News>, July 17, 2024

4. "Grain Highlights 09.07.2024", <Grainprices>, July 8, 2024


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