Climateflation: The Impact of Climate Change on the Global Grain Market

GrainScanner
26 Jul 2024


Image representing climateflation

Image representing climateflationใ…ฃ Image by: GrainScanner, Original photo by: Rod Waddington


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Climateflation: The Impact of Climate Change on the Global Grain Market

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Recently, we've seen unpredictable weather becoming the norm, with scorching heatwaves and sudden downpours becoming daily occurrences. Not just domestically, but globally, we are witnessing extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods. On the 21st of this month, Earth recorded its hottest day in 100,000 years. The rise in temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns due to global warming are shifting the cultivation areas of crops and reducing productivity, posing a real threat to agriculture in many countries. These changes directly impact food security and international grain prices, demanding a new agricultural paradigm worldwide. In this article, we will explore the effects of climate change on agriculture, forecast the 2024/25 crop yields, and examine the climate change response strategies of major grain-producing countries.


#2024/25 Global Crop Yield Forecasts
Pile of Corn

Pile of Corn | Photo by: Livier Garcia, Pexels

1. Corn

The global corn production is expected to be approximately 1,219.93 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the previous year. The United States' corn production is projected to decline by 3.1% to 377.46 million tons. Reductions are also expected in Ukraine (31 million tons, 12.9%↓) and Argentina (51 million tons, 3.8%↓). Conversely, increases are anticipated in China (292 million tons, 1.1%↑), the EU (64.8 million tons, 6.2%↑), and Brazil (127 million tons, 4.1%↑). The uncertainty due to climate change remains significant, affecting production in each country.


Pile of Soybeans

Soybeansใ…ฃ Photo by: Petr Ganaj, Pexels

2. Soybeans

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is projected to increase by 6.4% to 422.3 million tons. Brazil, in particular, is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons. Significant increases are also anticipated in Argentina (51 million tons, 2.0%↑) and Paraguay (10.7 million tons, 1.9%↑). Consequently, global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 15.0% from the previous year to 128.5 million tons.


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Wheat in the Field ใ…ฃ Photo by: Pixabay

3. Wheat

U.S. wheat production for 2024/25 is forecasted to reach 2,008 million bushels, the highest since the 2016/17 season. Record harvests are also expected in China and India, leading to an overall increase in global wheat production.


#Climate Conditions in Major Grain-Producing Countries

Climate change, in the form of rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns, is impacting crop yields in major grain-producing countries. These changes are causing shifts in cultivation areas and increasing the incidence of pests and diseases, which can further reduce productivity. In South Korea, for example, the cultivation areas for key crops are moving northward, necessitating quick responses from farmers.


Seed Growing on a Hand

 Seed Growing on a Hand l Photo by: Akil Mazumder, Pexels

#Grain Market Outlook and Stock Situation

For corn, while the U.S. ending stocks are projected to increase by 4% from the previous year, reductions in Brazil (26.0%↓) and Ukraine (49.1%↓) are expected to result in a global decrease of 0.3% to 312.3 million tons. In the soybean market, significant increases in ending stocks are forecasted for major producers such as the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina.

Climate change is creating a new paradigm in the global grain market. As seen in the 2024/25 forecasts, changes in corn and soybean production vary by country. To address climate change, it is essential to improve climate change response strategies and agricultural policies. Innovations in agricultural technology and international cooperation are crucial to prepare for 'climateflation' and build a sustainable agricultural production system. Only through these efforts can we minimize the crisis and damage caused by climate change and turn it into new opportunities.


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