[April Week 4] This weekโ€™s world grain market news ๐Ÿ—ž

GrainScanner
24 Apr 2024

 

 

Grainscanner brings 

some global grain market issues
 

1. U.S. and Russia forecast a hot summer due to the demise of El Niño.
According to U.S. and Russian summer weather forecasts, dry and hot weather is expected due to high-pressure ridges resulting from the disappearance of El Niño. Crop stress is a concern in the central U.S. and Canadian prairies with patterns associated with ENSO, and a 45-day weather cycle supports the expectation of a hot summer. Attention is required for the crop areas in the USA and Russia.
2. IGC predicts lower outlook for world corn production in 2024-25.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised down its forecast for global corn production in 2024-25 by 7 million tons compared to March. Nevertheless, the forecast for corn production remains at a record level of 1.226 billion tons. The forecast for total grain production was lowered to 2.322 billion tonnes, but remains a record. The total grain production forecast has been revised down to 2.322 billion tons but is still at a record level. Soybean production for 2024-25 is expected to exceed last year's, and the grain price index has slightly decreased from March, in the order of soybeans, rice, and wheat.
3. Decline of global rice prices due to increasing exports from Thailand and Vietnam.
Due to the increase in exports from Thailand and Vietnam, global rice prices are falling, excluding the U.S.. According to an FAO report, global rice prices in March 2024 fell by 1.7% compared to February 2024 and are still 14% higher than in March 2023.
4. Argentine corn production expected to decrease by 6% due to the spread of stunt disease.
According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the area and production of corn in Argentina for 2024-25 are expected to significantly decrease due to stunt disease spread by leaf-hoppers. FAS has announced that it expects the corn production forecast for 2024-25 to be 48 million tons per 6 million hectares, down 6% from the previous year. Particularly, farmers in the central-northern region are expected to switch from corn to soybeans due to this disease. According to FAS, this evolving disease is expected to reveal final damages when the last field is harvested by the end of June.
5. Uncertainty in cultivated area leads to turmoil in the US grain market.
According to the USDA's cultivation outlook report, the outlook for crop cultivation in 2024 is uncertain, and many changes are expected depending on weather variations. With early spring planting underway, analysts expect the market to fluctuate depending on this year's summer weather patterns. While improvements in conditions in US soybean and corn cultivation areas and a decrease in Kansas wheat prices are expected, some uncertainties remain, such as trade issues with China and soybean imports. This is expected to impact the harvest and future prices of major crops.


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