U.S. Grain Market Confused by Uncertainty in Plantation Area
Weaker wheat prices expected
U.S. wheat prices are expected to fall in early summer. If the weather is normal, it is analyzed that downward pressure will be placed on the wheat futures market. Wheat production in 2024 is expected to depend heavily on the weather. The southern U.S. Plains saw the best winter wheat conditions, but then the situation was mixed.
If U.S. corn production goes smoothly, corn futures prices will fall, and wheat prices could fall accordingly. Spring wheat cultivation conditions are also expected to affect the market. Currently, there is little weather risk premium in the market, and the cultivation conditions in Canada and the U.S. are drawing attention.
Soybean age seizing (increased soybean cultivation area)
While farmers were expected to grow more soybeans, some analysts suspect that farmers will not actually allocate as much farmland as the U.S. Department of Agriculture's initial expectations for soybeans. Most U.S. farmers prefer corn, with an estimated 85.9 million acres of farmland actually planted. Besides concerns over large-scale soybean production, the main factors affecting the export business of U.S. soybeans are not only China's strong competition, but also the threat of further sanctions on its trade relationship with China, the biggest importer of U.S. soybeans. Currently, when large-scale soybean production is hard to get a solid foothold in opportunities for large-scale soybean exports, the market is focusing on domestic demand.
Skeptical about corn drop
Farmers were expected to cut corn acreage by 4.9% this year from last year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture projection released on March 28, but this came as a huge shock to analysts. Projections show 9003.6 million acres of corn will be grown in 2024, 1.2% below the average analysts expected between 90 million and 934.72 million acres. Some analysts argue that the USDA's forecast is too low, and a June report said they expect corn area to increase further. Excluding drought-affected Iowa, most of the Midwest is in good shape and farm work is expected to be brisk this spring. However, a quick start to the La Niña weather pattern could affect this year's crop, especially for corn, which is expected to be especially damaging if it gets past summer asthma. Also, high humidity this summer could increase temperatures at night, affecting corn yields.
GrainScanner updates new articles every week.
If you're interested in Greenlabs, please contact us.
U.S. Grain Market Confused by Uncertainty in Plantation Area
Weaker wheat prices expected
U.S. wheat prices are expected to fall in early summer. If the weather is normal, it is analyzed that downward pressure will be placed on the wheat futures market. Wheat production in 2024 is expected to depend heavily on the weather. The southern U.S. Plains saw the best winter wheat conditions, but then the situation was mixed.
If U.S. corn production goes smoothly, corn futures prices will fall, and wheat prices could fall accordingly. Spring wheat cultivation conditions are also expected to affect the market. Currently, there is little weather risk premium in the market, and the cultivation conditions in Canada and the U.S. are drawing attention.
Soybean age seizing (increased soybean cultivation area)
While farmers were expected to grow more soybeans, some analysts suspect that farmers will not actually allocate as much farmland as the U.S. Department of Agriculture's initial expectations for soybeans. Most U.S. farmers prefer corn, with an estimated 85.9 million acres of farmland actually planted. Besides concerns over large-scale soybean production, the main factors affecting the export business of U.S. soybeans are not only China's strong competition, but also the threat of further sanctions on its trade relationship with China, the biggest importer of U.S. soybeans. Currently, when large-scale soybean production is hard to get a solid foothold in opportunities for large-scale soybean exports, the market is focusing on domestic demand.
Skeptical about corn drop
Farmers were expected to cut corn acreage by 4.9% this year from last year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture projection released on March 28, but this came as a huge shock to analysts. Projections show 9003.6 million acres of corn will be grown in 2024, 1.2% below the average analysts expected between 90 million and 934.72 million acres. Some analysts argue that the USDA's forecast is too low, and a June report said they expect corn area to increase further. Excluding drought-affected Iowa, most of the Midwest is in good shape and farm work is expected to be brisk this spring. However, a quick start to the La Niña weather pattern could affect this year's crop, especially for corn, which is expected to be especially damaging if it gets past summer asthma. Also, high humidity this summer could increase temperatures at night, affecting corn yields.
GrainScanner updates new articles every week.
If you're interested in Greenlabs, please contact us.